FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, one of the premier polling analysts this election season, takes on the Proposition 8 myths:
Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California’s black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters — the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent [!] of their votes) — voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage . . . At the end of the day, Prop 8’s passage was more a generational matter than a racial one. If nobody over the age of 65 had voted, Prop 8 would have failed by a point or two. It appears that the generational splits may be larger within minority communities than among whites, although the data on this is sketchy.
On that note, I have a small anecdote to share. I have a sister who is just finishing up elementary school. When the topic of marriage equality came up, I was surprised to hear her chime in. She wanted us to vote against Proposition 8.
“But do you even know what it’s about?” I asked.
“Yes. It’s when a boy and a boy gets married,” she replied.
“And you don’t have a problem with that?”
“No. All my friends don’t want it to pass, either.”
This is why all the concern about same-sex marriage being taught to children is a non-starter. These kids are far more intelligent than we give them credit for. I’m a straight male, so my sister didn’t discover homosexuality from observing my lifestyle. Instead, those her age learn about the basic aspects from their surroundings — and frankly, they don’t see it as a big deal.
I can only hope we learn to be as tolerant.
